A stroll down “Quantum Boulevard” reveals one of many world’s tightest concentrations of bleeding-edge expertise companies. Dozens of firms feed a quantum-computing provide chain that didn’t exist just a few years in the past. Their wares embody a few of the most superior commercialised expertise on the planet. The district is hardly a decade outdated; not way back probably the most fashionable tech within the space was farming gear. And it’s in an unlikely spot: Hefei, the capital of Anhui, one in every of China’s much less fancied provinces.
China’s progress is flagging, however its financial miracle seems alive and properly in Hefei. Residence to about 9.6m folks, the inland metropolis noticed its GDP develop by greater than 8% a 12 months on common from 2012 to 2022. As soon as thought of backward and poor, Hefei’s residents now take pleasure in a disposable revenue that comfortably exceeds China’s city common (see chart).
The town’s success owes a lot to what some name the “Hefei mannequin”. A singular mixture of local-government funding and personal enterprise, the mannequin has been described as state capitalism at its greatest. It has fostered industries like high-end manufacturing, electrical automobiles (EVs), biotech and semiconductors. These so-called strategic, rising industries now account for over 56% of Hefei’s industrial output, in contrast with lower than 27% in 2013. No matter native officers have been doing, it seems to be “the correct mix of commercial coverage and private-sector mojo,” says Robin Xing, an economist at Morgan Stanley and a Hefei native.
This model of progress is exactly how Xi Jinping, China’s chief, envisions the nation’s future. Hefei’s technological progress chimes with Mr Xi’s name for an “Industrial Revolution 4.0”, during which China shakes off “low-quality” progress—low cost manufacturing and debt-financed homebuilding—by capturing solely new industries and their provide chains. This imaginative and prescient reserves particular consideration for the inland backwaters which have missed out on a lot of the web growth in coastal provinces. If Mr Xi has his manner, the subsequent decade of improvement will look extra like Hefei than right this moment’s tech hubs of Shenzhen and Hangzhou.
BOE Expertise, the world chief in LCD shows, has a few of its foremost factories in Hefei. So does NIO, one of many world’s fastest-growing ev firms. China’s chief in voice-recognition synthetic intelligence, iFlyTek, was based by the native college. Its most superior DRAM chipmaker, CXTM, was co-founded by the native authorities.
Overseas firms have additionally endorsed Hefei’s effectivity. Volkswagen, a German carmaker, has operated manufacturing vegetation within the metropolis for years. Earlier this 12 months it introduced plans for a €1bn ($1.1bn) innovation centre in Hefei that may assist design evs. Such hubs are uncommon outdoors China’s largest coastal cities, particularly for multinationals. Few inland areas can muster the expertise, logistics and provide chains to foster them. However Hefei has the proper circumstances to arrange such a facility, says Ralf Brandstätter, Volkswagen’s China chief.
Boulevard of unbroken desires
Hefei’s success has stirred loads of curiosity. Delegation after delegation of officers from much less affluent areas have visited town within the hopes of taking some financial magic again house.. A employees member at a state funding group in Hefei says his agency is booked to capability over the subsequent month internet hosting guests from different metropolis governments.
They may shortly study the mannequin’s important substances. The primary is a big pool of extremely educated, motivated folks. Hefei is much sufficient inland—about 470km from Shanghai—to have missed out on the Nineteen Nineties growth within the Yangzi river delta. However it’s shut sufficient to soak up the affect of its better-off neighbours, giving it what Anhui locals say is a scrappy, underdog angle.
In the course of the Cultural Revolution, a politically tumultuous interval between 1966 and 1976, the College of Science and Expertise of China (USTC) was pressured to depart Beijing. The nation’s prime tech school tried a number of cities earlier than settling in Hefei in 1970. Within the flight from political violence, usually directed at lecturers, it misplaced greater than half its students and gear.
However utsc has now re-emerged as a world centre for science. The encompassing schooling system has additionally flourished, giving town a excessive density of fine colleges, notes Christopher Marquis, the co-author of “Mao and Markets: The Communist Roots of Chinese language Enterprise”.
That has made it a hub for superior expertise. USTC has designed China’s most superior quantum pc. Not far-off on the Institute of Physics, scientists are testing one of many world’s most superior fusion-energy reactors, the Experimental Superior Superconducting Tokamak. The earliest human trials with CRISPR, a genetic-engineering instrument, had been carried out at a Hefei hospital in 2015. Since then a thriving biosciences trade has sprung up.
A second ingredient of the Hefei mannequin is the circulation of expertise. The town authorities steadily recruits from the engineering and science departments of native universities. It additionally encourages exchanges between authorities places of work, college departments and corporations, constructing belief and networks. One native cadre spent years at USTC serving to researchers establish marketable patents, whereas holding a authorities place. Businesspeople in Hefei say officers all through the native administration can talk about trade matters in depth.
A 3rd issue is the “chain boss” system. The federal government has created teams of companies in 12 industries, together with semiconductors, EVs, quantum sciences and biotechnology. Every group has a “chain boss”: a authorities official who oversees big-picture planning for the trade. In 2020, for instance, Hefei’s Communist Occasion chief was the chain boss of town’s integrated-circuits trade. The mayor oversaw the display-screen trade.
These bosses work with a state-appointed “chain chief”, sometimes the dominant firm inside an trade. The federal government passes coverage instructions to this chief, which shares them with different firms within the provide chain. Corporations and officers use this communication channel to debate the allocation of state capital, the sourcing of supplies and potential bottlenecks in provides, famous Ni Hua, an analyst at East Asia Qianhai Securities, in a report final 12 months.
Earlier than the state invests in a brand new firm, officers seek the advice of with all members of a series to know how the newcomer will slot in, says an govt at a neighborhood quantum-computing agency. One younger entrepreneur who just lately began a enterprise in Hefei says that breaking into these trade teams is extremely troublesome. There may be little scope for ruthless competitors inside provide chains. As a substitute the main target is on beating firms in different areas or nations.
The fourth ingredient within the mannequin is state capital. Whereas cities elsewhere on the planet fund colleges, construct sewers or home the poor, Hefei’s administration ploughs cash into probably the most promising firms it could actually establish. It has been described as a “authorities of funding bankers”. Its outlays circulation primarily by three automobiles. Every has sprawling portfolios spanning tons of of investments.
Chained melody
These investments give town authorities broad attain. Corporations akin to BOE, the display-maker, and NIO, the ev agency, stand on the centre of huge provide chains. Smaller firms transfer to Hefei to be nearer to them. Most stay privately owned. But when they swimsuit the federal government’s plan for the provision chain, they may in all probability entice some state funding. On this manner whole provide chains are linked up by just some state traders that reply to town authorities.
For practically a decade cities and provinces throughout China have been experimenting with state-backed enterprise capital, elevating as a lot as $1trn. However a lot of their investments have yielded mediocre returns at greatest. China’s venture-capital state has been written off as a money sink and a major alternative for corruption. Final 12 months, for instance, anti-corruption authorities rounded up executives at China’s premier state fund, the Nationwide Built-in Circuit Fund, in an try to weed out graft.
What units Hefei aside? The town’s state capitalists have clearly benefited from town’s historical past and placement. Not each inland metropolis can study from Shanghai with out being swamped by it, or present refuge to an excellent college. The tight hyperlinks of the “chain boss” system additionally be sure that Hefei’s state capitalists don’t make investments with out steering from trade.
Hefei’s state traders have additionally been unusually adventurous. Most cities lack the experience to run private-equity funds. And they don’t have incentives to make bets with distant, unsure pay-offs. Cadres usually spend simply 5 years in a single location. Even when a long-term funding had been to succeed, they might not be round to take pleasure in their triumph. These quick horizons inhibit officers’ funding selections. Many authorities funds, for instance, have put cash into chip designers not chipmakers, notes Tilly Zhang, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a analysis home. Chip design is much less capital-intensive and faster to point out returns.
Hefei’s state capitalists haven’t any such inhibition. The native authorities’s first large punt was a $5.2bn funding in BOE in 2008. (Officers delayed the development of a subway system so as to scrape the funds collectively.) The LCD display trade was then dominated by South Korea and Japan. Critics famous that it will take years to for Chinese language companies to have the ability to compete. However BOE ultimately constructed a number of vegetation in Hefei and has since come to dominate the worldwide trade.
NIO, the electric-car maker, was even riskier. In 2020 the group was on the breaking point when Hefei invested 5bn yuan ($700m). nio then moved its China headquarters and a few manufacturing amenities to town. In lower than two years NIO had recovered and its share worth soared. The town made a return of as much as 5.5 instances its preliminary funding, in accordance with Bloomberg. Hefei Jiantou, a authorities fund that invested in each BOE and NIO, has taken in funding revenue of no less than 5bn yuan every year between 2019 and 2021.
For Mr Xi’s financial imaginative and prescient to succeed, the Hefei mannequin should unfold far past its fatherland. Smaller cities should sprout large companies in main industries, akin to EVs, photo voltaic power and chips. One quantum boulevard won’t be sufficient.
However experimentation in a single metropolis has usually supplied a template for the remainder of the nation. The “Shenzhen mannequin” within the Eighties, for instance, pioneered the mix of Chinese language labour and overseas capital that turned southern China into the workshop of the world. Across the identical time the “Wenzhou mannequin”, named after the south-eastern port metropolis, confirmed that family factories, usually financed by household financial savings, may succeed, with the assistance of peripatetic gross sales brokers travelling up and down the nation.
Can the Hefei mannequin even be exported? A number of inland cities have comparable beginning circumstances, such pretty much as good colleges and robust industrial bases. Such locations may have the ability to replicate a few of Hefei’s funding methods, says Mr Xing.
However Hefei’s success means that schooling, trade and geography are usually not sufficient. Political incentives should additionally align. Mr Xi steadily calls for loyalty and austerity from his cadres. The Hefei mannequin, then again, requires gumption and daring. State capitalists should be ready to take the form of dangerous bets that don’t all the time repay. The mannequin can not achieve different cities until their native cadres are free to fail. ■
For extra knowledgeable evaluation of the largest tales in economics, finance and markets, signal as much as Cash Talks, our weekly subscriber-only publication.
