Analyst: Government is likely to survive the Hlubuček scandal “because there is no alternative at this time”

“Yes. I think the government will be shaken by the” Fulbuchek incident “, but the government will survive just because there is no alternative at this time.

“That’s because if the mayor and the independent (STAN) left the government because of a scandal, no one could actually form a majority government.

“The opposition doesn’t have enough seats, and without Stan, the Civic Democratic Party, led by Petr Fiara and other parties, can’t really form a majority.”

The government, which was in power during the Czech EU Presidency before 2009, has famously collapsed due to a vote of no confidence. Now there seems to be another scandal that happened just before the presidential term. But based on what you are saying, do you think it does not affect the Czech Presidency of the EU?

“I don’t think the Czech Presidency of the EU will be affected as it was in 2009.

“Of course, there will be some impact, which means that there is likely to be political skirmishes and instability.

“But the opposition doesn’t have enough votes to really defeat the government.

“Therefore, unless one of the parties decides to leave the current government camp and join the opposition, we really don’t know how that will happen.

“This is very unlikely at the moment, given the populist and far-right nature of the opposition, so I don’t think the government will collapse, but there will be some instability.”

And what about the mayor and the independents themselves? The party has lost its position in polls since last year’s general election. A joint election will be held this fall. Do you think the party can survive this crisis?

<!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>
Jiří Pehe | Photo: Kateřina Cibulka, Czech Radio
Jiří Pehe | Photo: Kateřina Cibulka, Czech Radio<!–

“I think all parties will survive this crisis, but of course, perhaps the party most thinking about leaving the government is the pirates.

“It’s not the mayor or the independents who think they’ll do their best to stay in government.

“But pirates may consider leaving the government at some point just because they know that their departure will not overthrow the government (currently 108 because they have only four seats). It does not end the majority of the government seats. Opposition 92).

“Furthermore, they also know that if the current government is decided by the Civic Democratic Party and continues its economically very neoliberal policies, it will damage the reputation of left-wing progressive party pirates. increase.”

I would also like to hear about the reaction of the Pirates, who had a coalition with the mayor and independents in the last general election. Prior to the election, they were expected to be stronger in both parties, but the opposite was true. Do you think that the pirates’ separation of themselves is seen as an opportunity to bring their brand back to the public eye?

“I think pirates play the role of opposition within the coalition government. They are actually the only party in the coalition that opposes some policies.

“Occasionally, they were critical of what was happening inside the mayor and independents. This may actually help them as they may be able to get out of the shadow of the general election coalition partner. Hmm.

“It’s a big question whether this is enough to really revive the party, because, as I said, pirates, whether they like it or not, are especially co-sponsored by the Civic Democratic Party’s neoliberal economic policy. Because it is responsible, which directs the government to these policies.

“Therefore, they will probably have to think about leaving the coalition at some point.

“But I don’t really think this will happen before the end of the Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union, as I don’t want to create instability that could harm the Czech Republic.

“Moreover, it would be unwise to do so before some progress has been made regarding the war in Ukraine.

“Once again, leaving the government that strongly supports Ukraine at this time is bad for them, so we will probably wait for all sorts of decisions on this before the end of the Czech EU Presidency. . Ukraine, and also the Czech Republic’s presidential election in January next year. “

<!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>
Petr Hlubuček, photo: Filip Jandourek / Czech Radio
Petr Hlubuček, Photo: Filip Jandourek / Czech Radio<!–

The incident over former councilor Petr Hlubuček has also affected the ruling coalition of the Prague City Hall (including the mayor and independents, the Pirate Party, the Praha Sobě movement, TOP 09). How do you think this will affect the next election and the subsequent formation of a coalition at Prague City Hall?

“In Prague, I think we will see another coalition after the local elections in October.

“Pirate isn’t going to repeat very good achievements in the last election. They’re just not at that level now, and of course their coalition partners, the mayor and independents, will be hurt by the current scandal. Let’s go.

“If you believe in the current polls, it’s probably the coalition (Civic Democratic Party, Christian Democratic Party, TOP 09) that wins and governs Prague.

“That said, of course, it’s still four months, but now the Together coalition is far more advanced than any other party.” Analyst: Government is likely to survive the Hlubuček scandal “because there is no alternative at this time”

Back to top button