Editorial: Taiwan’s Invasion Will Destroy China

Liu Deyin, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that China’s invasion of Taiwan would put the company’s factories out of business and that such a war would “produce no winners.” .

Not only will a cross-strait conflict destroy Taiwan’s economy, but its impact “will go far beyond semiconductors, bring about the destruction of the global rules-based order, and completely change the geopolitical landscape,” Liu said. said in an interview. According to Central News Agency.

Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands wrote on June 24, “The massive war over Taiwan was sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine for reasons far beyond Taiwan’s key position in the semiconductor supply chain. Such disruptions can lead to disruptions in the global economy that seem trivial by comparison.”

Brand said fighting in the region would disrupt vital shipping routes and accelerate the separation of the US and Chinese economies. This could be followed by blockades, sanctions and seizures of each other’s assets.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on April 6 partially confirmed Brands’ speculations by saying the U.S. would use all sanctions against China if it attacks Taiwan.

Such sanctions seem to have the support of the American public. Morning Consult Holdings reported last Friday that a recent poll found that a majority supported providing assistance to Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait conflict, with those who hesitate to engage the U.S. military. even supports severing commercial ties with China.

Beijing may have thought the scope of sanctions it would impose after an attack would be limited given the interdependence of the world’s largest economies. But US and European sanctions on Russia, which are pulling away from Russian energy, show otherwise. The impact of these sanctions has reduced our ability to assist China in such events by compensating other markets.

Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 10% this year, and Moscow has defaulted on its foreign debt. Economist Rachel Ziemba and journalist Adrian Marr said in an interview on National Public Radio’s The Indicator on June 29 that Russia is developing semiconductors, key auto parts such as transmission boxes and airbags, and said they were unable to purchase other items they could not easily manufacture in their country. .

That last point relates to Liu’s comments about TSMC. China manufactures microchips, but it still relies on imports from Taiwan and South Korea for its cutting-edge chips. Liu said that if TSMC were invaded by Taiwan, “TSMC’s factories are so sophisticated that they will not be able to produce chips.”

South Korea is also likely to cut off chip supplies to China in order to comply with global sanctions against Beijing. You will be put at a disadvantage.

There is no doubt that China will face devastating sanctions in response to its attack on Taiwan. Its economy would remain in tatters, but it could even face military action from countries concerned about the strategic implications of an attack on Taiwan.

A delegation of former Japanese defense officials arrived last Wednesday and met with President Tsai Ing-wen and other senior officials for four days to discuss security exchanges between Taiwan and Japan. The meeting apparently took Beijing officials by surprise, as the propaganda mouthpiece, the Global Times, wrote an op-ed the day after the delegation’s arrival claiming Japan was malicious.

Even if successful, China need not be reminded that any attempt to invade Taiwan would come at an insurmountable price.

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