Emigré Russians look back on Victory Day as a weathercock

Anti-war Russians who fled abroad in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine are hoping to celebrate each year the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany on May 9 to measure their chances of returning.

There was much speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin would take advantage of this opportunity. Military parade Through central Moscow, he makes major announcements about the war with Ukraine, perhaps even proclaiming victory.

“May 9 seems to be a hopeful date so far,” said Olga, an IT expert who left Russia for Turkey shortly after the invasion began, anonymously and freely. I asked for that.

“Putin will have to say something about the war,” she said. “It’s a question of what they’re trying to assemble as a victory.”

Tens of thousands of immigrant Russians now live in countries such as Armenia, Georgia, Turkey and Latvia after fleeing abroad after Ukraine was invaded for fear of recruitment, political persecution and the economic collapse of combat. I’m out. Some have no plans to return to Russia until the end of the administration, while anxiously tracking Moscow’s developments, collecting belongings and planning more permanent immigrants, trying to figure out when it’s safe to return. Some people have.

A Russian reservist who worked in advertising shortly after the invasion to avoid the possibility of drafting and flew to Turkey for a May 9 vacation to meet his family and collect some possessions. He said he was planning to return to Russia.

“I’m happy if I make a mistake, but I think May is very important to Putin … I think Putin imagines a victory parade like 1945,” he demands to speak anonymously and freely. bottom. “We are expecting something wrong. All of us here in Turkey may be in the preparatory stage, not especially that day.”

The use of symbolic dates is important throughout Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, and the invasion begins the day after the Day of the Defender of the Father, the anniversary of the founding of the Red Army.

Many of Russia’s campaigns in Ukraine are saturated with historical analogies, especially the image of World War II.Russian authorities regularly Accusation Ukraine, a Nazi nation, and the Russian army Raised World War II military banners on buildings and towns captured from the Ukrainian army.

Since the 1960s, Russia’s annual May 9 holiday has traditionally been characterized by large military parades, large marches in major cities, and other public events.This year, the fighter Parade flight Central Moscow in the shape of a “Z”. It is a widely used symbol to support the Russian army in Ukraine.

“Putin is obsessed with history and the cult symbol of Russia’s Victory Day,” said Russian foreign policy expert Anton Barbasin.

Russian troops have had limited success in Ukraine, occupying relatively small areas south and east of the country, but many are limited to the kind that Putin is in Ukraine on May 9. I hope to try to announce the victory.

“Russia has ended the war in Syria a couple of times … they have announced a complete victory, achieved their goals and achieved their mission,” Barbasin said. “They can announce [on 9 May] What we won: Donbus is safe … but everything goes on. “

Others believe that the Kremlin can take advantage of the patriotic enthusiasm of Victory Day celebrations to attempt to lay Russia at the foundation of a wider war.

“The Kremlin is more likely to use May 9 as the day when a” special military operation “is officially assembled as a” war “instead of using it to announce a victory. It seems. ” Report Published last month by the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think tank.

Turkey-based IT expert Olga said that if Putin declared victory on May 9, she would raise her hopes of returning to Moscow. But in the end, she wants Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine and change Russia’s regime.

There is also important evidence that Russian troops will not be able to make the necessary profits on the ground by the iconic day, whatever they expect the situation on the ground to change by May 9.

“I think people are a little too sticky on May 9th as the end of this war.” Tweet Rob Li, a military analyst at the US-based Foreign Policy Institute.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergeĭ Viklov Said Sunday the Kremlin does not want to end the war in Ukraine by the day of victory.

The fighting has spread more and more to Russia in recent weeks, revealing Ukrainian attacks on strategic facilities within Russia.Borderline violence, along with the governor of the Belgorod region, began to affect even some Victory Day plans. Cancel On Thursday, the so-called Immortal Regiment will march in nine districts adjacent to Ukraine.

Anna, a Russian who emigrated to Georgia in the South Caucasus after the invasion, said the official victory declaration on May 9 was not enough to decide to return to Moscow.

“Russian decision makers are not very clear. It is almost impossible to guess what they will say next,” she told the Moscow Times.

Like many Russians who fled abroad, Anna, who demanded to speak anonymously and freely, was reluctant to break all ties with Russia and repaid her mortgage at her apartment in Moscow. I’m continuing.

“Of course I want to end the war, but this is [would not be] It’s enough for me to come back, “she said, adding that she would only go home when Putin was” in his grave. “