Fitch Ratings expects 4 years of zero growth in Mexico

The Mexican economy may show zero growth in the medium to long term. Carlos Morales, Director of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, said in a presentation at the 16th Asofom Congress that by 2023 the country would barely recover to 2020 levels, calling this a “lost four. corresponds to “year”.

According to his forecast, comparing expected growth over the next few years from 2020 to 2023, he noted that Mexico is the least growing country in these years.

“Our projection is that the average growth rate will be zero, meaning that by 2023 GDP will only recover to 2020 levels, which will grow year-on-year to outpace the 2020 contraction. It shows a four-year loss of growth compared to other countries in the world,” said Carlos Morales.

Another challenge that has stood out in the context of the Mexican economy is high inflation and the continued increase in inflation risks.

Therefore, the rating director of the securities rating agency has assured that Mexico’s rating is subject to change in the next 12 to 24 months.

He argued that once problems such as the rule of law, corruption and political instability in decision-making were resolved, the country’s sovereign rating would be two lang higher than it is today (BBB – outlook stable). ) ).

US could ‘trail’ Mexico to grow economy by just 1% in 2023: Moody’s

A Moody’s agency indicated that the Mexican economy would be hit by the projected slowdown in the US.

The rating agencies have adjusted their growth forecasts for the countries that make up the G-20, emphasizing that Mexico is expected to rise by 2% this year and 1% in 2023. This contrasts with the forecast for May. predicts growth of 1.8% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.

“In Mexico, economic activity expanded by 1.9% in the first half of 2022, supported by U.S. export demand. In addition, we expect a slowdown in line with the U.S. economy, so we expect growth to be close to 1% in 2023,” Moody’s added.

For the United States, we forecast growth of 1.9% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, while we forecast 2.8% and 2.3% growth in May.

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