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Forecast of normal Atlantic hurricane activity for the next two weeks

September 2, 2022

Credit: GJGK_Photography/AdobeStock

Forecasters at Colorado State University said Thursday that tropical cyclone activity is likely to remain at normal levels over the next two weeks as the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak.

Forecasters expect the upper atmospheric valleys to continue to bring near-normal or above-normal wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

“This increased shear is likely due to the active tropical upper tropospheric trough, which is one of the main reasons the Atlantic hurricane season has been less active than predicted,” according to the projections.

Before the season began on June 1, forecasters expected an above-normal hurricane season to begin with above-normal sea surface temperatures and low wind shear across the southern United States.

On August 4, forecasters in Colorado predicted four major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178.6 kmh).

The August Outlook also forecasts eight hurricanes, including four major hurricanes, out of 18 named tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Daniel formed in the Atlantic on Thursday, but is not expected to pose a risk to the United States.

Daniel is the fourth tropical storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean this year. A historically active month, he had no storms in August.

Tropical storms are being watched closely. especially in the Gulf of Mexicobecause of the threat they pose offshore Oil and gas production in the United States and Mexico.

offshore Operations in the U.S. regulated northern Gulf of Mexico account for 15% of total crude oil production and 5% of total dry natural gas production.

In addition, 47% of the United States’ crude oil refining and 51% of its natural gas processing plant capacity are located along the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane season ends on November 30th.

(Reuters – Reporting by Erwin Seba, Editing by Bernadette Baum)

https://www.oedigital.com/news/499194-normal-atlantic-hurricane-activity-forecast-over-next-two-weeks Forecast of normal Atlantic hurricane activity for the next two weeks

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