Analysts say this week the U.S. and Russia could not find a diplomatic solution to the fierce tensions over Eastern Europe’s security, so even if a full-scale war is unavoidable, a new Russian restructuring against Ukraine The possibility of attack has increased.
Russia has been accused of gathering about 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border as it seeks a Western commitment that the former Soviet state, which is closer to the EU, will never join NATO.
Russian and U.S. officials met in Geneva this week, but there are no signs of a breakthrough, Washington warns by the weekend, and Moscow could launch a false flag operation within a few weeks to encourage aggression. ..
Jen Psaki, a White House spokesman, said:
“Operators are trained to use urban warfare and explosives to perform sabotage against Russia’s own surrogate forces.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine was hit by a fierce cyberattack early on Friday due to the West against Russia, fearing that some analysts could signal an attack.
In response to the expulsion of former Russian President of Ukraine in 2014, Moscow occupied the Black Sea Peninsula of the Crimea, a merger never recognized by the international community, in a lightning-up military operation.
He then assisted the separatists who ruled two regions in eastern Ukraine in an unresolved conflict that killed more than 13,000 people.
Is there a loophole?
Even though analysts see this as a very distant opportunity so far, NATO has revealed that Ukraine will never rule out the possibility of joining the alliance.
“Unfortunately, there is a high probability of war,” said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Eurasian Center of the US-based Atlantic Council. “Currently, the position of Russia and the United States is I can’t reconcile. “
Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, added:
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation, said NATO did not provide Ukraine with membership, let alone membership action plans.
“Of course, it will be very difficult to find a way to say that it is politically feasible, but so will war,” he said.
What is Russia
But analysts say it is impossible to read the hearts of Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite the ominous cues.
“The decision to continue these talks was made by Vladimir Putin, and so far no one has it,” said Marie Dumoulin, director of the broader European program of the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR). I don’t know what will happen. ” ..
François Heisbourg, a special adviser to the Strategic Research Foundation (FRS) in Paris, said “the situation is completely volatile” and “the risk of war is high.”
Mr Charap said it was an “unresolved question” whether negotiations with the United States were merely a “time-buying exercise” for Russia.
“I don’t know if that’s the case, and I don’t think any of us really know.”
What will military action take?
Even if Russia chooses military action, it may not lead to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to prominent Russian security analyst Maxim Succikov, Putin could look to actions such as deploying Russian missiles in the separatist-dominated Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula. rice field.
Heisbourg argued that it could also limit the “territorial interests” that connect the Donbas region to Crimea.
US intelligence has shown that Russia has not made a final decision. “I don’t think I’m ready for an immediate aggression,” added a French diplomatic source who asked not to be nominated.
What will the result be?
Russia has been repeatedly warned by Western nations of “massive” consequences if it attacks Ukraine again, but these could take the form of sanctions rather than military counterattacks.
Moscow and Western nations have been hit by an unprecedented crisis since the Cold War, potentially expanding Russia’s partnership with China and further strengthening its alliance with Belarus’ dictatorship, which borders the three EU countries.
For Dumoulin, “Russians are blowing hot and cold” and maintaining “the greatest pressure to get more” from the West over the European security structure of the former Communist blocs.
“Military intervention scenarios aren’t the most likely because their” cost, military, political, financial, and human “are significant,” she said.
Putin argued that Putin attacked Ukraine “in a way that did not lead to war” and “squeezed his hand” to Europe, but did not unleash a package of strict sanctions. — AFP
http://www.gulf-times.com/story/708165/Has-diplomacy-on-Ukraine-reached-a-dead-end Has Ukraine’s diplomacy got stuck?