Maybe mobilization in Russia.Kremlin spokesmen call it “nonsense,” but there is growing speculation that Putin is ready to extend the war with Ukraine.

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April 25, 2022 Victory Day Parade Rehearsal in Yekaterinburg

Vladimir Putin may announce full Russian military mobilization at this year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, according to European and U.S. state officials and media analysts. I am saying. In their view, only mobilization would allow Russian troops to replenish their stockpiles and break the current stalemate in Ukraine. But on May 4, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called this speculation “not true” or “nonsense.” Medusa put together a timeline of statements made about mobilization in Russia, focusing on who said what and when.

Meduza would like to thank the author Anna Razumnaya. About politics Newsletter, for the next translation.

April 28

British Secretary of State Ben Wallace said: interview With LBC radio:

I wouldn’t be surprised and I don’t have any information about this. He will probably declare on this May Day, “We are now at war with the Nazis of the world, so we need to mobilize the Russian people.” .. “

According to Wallace, the Russian president abandoned the term “special military operations” because he had previously stated that the fighting in Ukraine was turning into a “proxy war” and that “the Nazis are basically everywhere.” May declare a full-scale war, they are not only in Ukraine, NATO is full of Nazis. “

According to Wallace, President Putin will be able to say, “This is a war with the Nazis, I need more people, and more Russian cannon feed.” We are laying the groundwork for this, “added the Secretary of Defense. Mass conscription from the reserves would be an “approval of failure” on the part of Russian generals currently engaged in concealing military losses.

April 30

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has not “excluded” mobilization in Russia. Agency spokesman, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, Said At the briefing:

Whether Russia declares full mobilization will certainly depend on the ongoing hostilities in the eastern operational zone. If the enemy is unable to reach their short-term goals, such a scenario is quite possible and we do not rule it out.

May 1st

Oleksii Arrestovich, an adviser to President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff, said: Said Russia’s mobilization will only accelerate the collapse of Putin’s administration and will benefit Kyiv.

General mobilization in Russia will benefit Ukraine. That’s because it starts the final countdown of the Putin administration’s remaining days — a very quick countdown. This is an unstoppable process already. The best thing that can happen is general mobilization in Russia. This is a great trump card like we have, so I don’t want to jinx it.

May 2

Kirill Budanov, chief intelligence director of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, said Russia is preparing to mobilize.In an interview with New Voice Ukraine, he Said:

Rosrezerv [Russia’s Federal Agency for State Reserves] They are beginning to examine what they can actually use and estimate what they can issue under a mobilization order. This is an absolutely necessary step before starting the actual mobilization.

When asked if the Kremlin planned to win the Donbus by May 9, the intelligence director said: They don’t have time. You can never achieve it on time. “

May 3

In the US, CNN too report Russian authorities may announce full mobilization on May 9. The news network quoted a previous statement by British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace and the opinion of US State Department spokesman Edward Price. Admitted “There is good reason to believe that Russians will do everything they can to use dates from a promotional point of view.”

Separately, CNN quoted Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, who said the Kremlin was considering the May 9 news option. Try annexing the self-proclaimed republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, and creating a similar “People’s Republic” in the occupied territories of Kherson. “Russia has reportedly planned to design a referendum to join Russia in mid-May, and Moscow is considering a similar plan for Kherson,” he said. Said At the State Department briefing.

Medusa’s own source of information Confirm This report.

May 4th

Journalists ask the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov about the possibility of mobilization in Russia, a spokesman for Vladimir Putin said.NonsenseDisseminated by the Western media:

Govorit Moskva [Moscow on Air]: Western publications report that perhaps on May 9, some decisions could be made about the special military operation. Even mobilization may be announced in Russia. How would you respond to these reports? Is there anything in this?

Dmitry Peskov: No, please ignore it. That is not true. That’s nonsense.

СNN: Western officials also mentioned that Putin could declare war on May 9. How likely is Putin to use it to declare war on May 9th?

Dmitry Peskov: Zero. I have already answered that question. That’s nonsense.

Is it really “nonsense”?

On May 2, Ruslan Leviev, founder of the research group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), said: Said The current time of the press that his team has not yet tracked evidence of imminent mobilization preparations. “We are unaware of any signs of full-scale unpacking in the mobilization warehouse or the large number of equipment being moved due to potential mobilization,” Leviev said.

According to Leviev, CIT researchers do not expect general mobilization because of the disastrous consequences for the Russian economy. He also points out that the Russian army is already suffering from a serious shortage of weapons and even uniforms. But some partial mobilization is plausible, says Leviev. For example, reserves from areas near the Ukrainian border could be drafted by the army, the term of those scheduled to demobilize in May 2022 could be extended, or recently demobilized people could return to combat. there is.

“If partial mobilization occurs,” Leviev explains. The Russian army was able to realistically find equipment and uniforms for an additional 200,000 men. In his view, that alone is sufficient to “significantly” change the course of the war, and will probably allow Russia to occupy all areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Russian translation Original text To Anna RasmunayaAuthor of About politics Newsletter Maybe mobilization in Russia.Kremlin spokesmen call it “nonsense,” but there is growing speculation that Putin is ready to extend the war with Ukraine.

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