Mumbai: A third pandemic wave in progress, led by Omicron, will bring new disruptions to air traffic and could fully recover in 2024, according to rating agency Crisil.
Authorities previously predicted a full recovery in 2023.
However, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit quality of airport operators. This is because the decline in earnings is expected to be limited by the potential for strong rebounds, and operators have ample debt repayment cushions, liquidity buffers, and financial flexibility to absorb. Traffic blip.
An analysis of the top four private airports in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad said that last year it accounted for 90% of all passenger transport and 50% of all passenger transport handled by private airports.
“Due to the high infection rate of Omicron, several state and local governments such as Delhi and Mumbai have announced restrictions on mobility,” said Manish Gupta, senior director of Crisil Ratings.
“In fact, domestic traffic has fallen 25% from the December 2021 highs in the first week of January 2022. Both personal and business trips were hit in January and February. Air traffic will plummet by an estimated 30% in a row in the fourth quarter of this year. “
Authorities said the spillover is likely to delay the recovery of air traffic from “previous expectations for 2023.”
However, recovery is expected in the first half of 2024.
“This could be a faster recovery for air traffic this time compared to the second wave, which took May-November 2021 to recover from 16% to 85% of traffic in 2020. Because it’s expensive, “said the agency.
“The confidence in the rebound is that the proportion of vaccinated masses is high (more than 71% compared to just 5% as of the end of May 2021) and governments and authorities from past waves in the implementation of Covid-19. Supported by learning from. A protocol for safe travel. Case loads are also expected to peak in February and return to December 2021 levels by the end of March 2022. ” increase.
As a result, rating agencies added that earnings in 2023 and 2024 are likely to remain stable.
https://www.siasat.com/omicron-could-push-air-traffic-recovery-into-fiscal-2024-crisil-2257923/ Omicron could boost air traffic recovery in 2024: Crisil