Orban has hours until midnight: billions of euros at stake, HF may collapse

Based on the latest calculations from the GKI Economic Research Institute, the value of the euro could stabilize at around 430 forints if Hungary does not receive the EU recovery fund. Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have time to send a reply letter on this issue. European Commission until midnight. The document could receive EU funding or play a key role in Brussels’ rejection of a petition for the Hungarian Recovery Fund.

Orban has time until midnight

according to, Hungary’s GDP growth could fall by 2-3% if it does not receive EU recovery funds. In addition, 1 euro is 430 forints and the exchange rate is maintained. This is what the GKI Economic Research Institute currently predicts based on their latest financial calculations.

The deadline for the Hungarian government to inform the European Commission what it wants to do to stop corruption is this midnight. The letter will play a key role in whether Budapest will receive his EU funding, estimated at 150 billion forints (US$36.7 billion). GDP of Hungary in 2021 was At $182 billion, the EU recovery fund is definitely a good deal.

The President had already included a message to Brussels in his speech last Saturday, August 20th.Katalin Novak Said “Preconditions for our cooperation [with the EU – editor] It’s about not blackmailing us with an ideology rejected by the Hungarians or with the money we’re entitled to,” the president said. Hungary wants to make Europe stronger and the continent “louder,” Novak said. “This gives us a chance to protect Europeans and preserve some of the history and culture that made Europe great,” she added.

The European Council decides

However, the European Commission expects a written response from the Hungarian government. Orbán’s 5th Cabinet has until midnight Monday to send the letter. What Brussels wants to know is how the government wants to spend the recovery funds.

After receiving the government letter, the EC will have one month to decide whether to accept it. If so, the funds will start flowing to Hungary. But otherwise Hungary won’t get all the money, and the latter is more likely, according to his foreign affairs expert, former MEP and ambassador István Szent-Iványi. .

Opinions are divided as to the speed with which the withdrawal will reach. Commissioners Vera Youlova and Reinders want harsher punishments. But some commissioners are more lenient on this issue. The European Council makes the final decision by a limited majority. In other words, the Hungarian Prime Minister cannot veto.

Billions of Euros in Crisis

It costs a lot of money. Hungary can receive her 5.9 billion euros from the Recovery Fund and from 2021 he 22 billion euros from the long-term EU budget for 2027.

GKI’s CEO believes that without the funding, Hungary’s GDP would fall by 2-3% and the euro exchange rate would be 430 HUF/EUR. Because the government has to cut spending. In addition, inflation will be higher, reducing investment and consumption.

The government made two gestures to the EU. Congress may accept amendments to the Legislative Act and the Criminal Procedure Code in September. His MEP of socialists, István Ujhelyi, said the European Union had expressed specific demands regarding Hungary’s rule of law, prosecutorial services and courts.

ATV has asked the Ministry of Justice if it has sent a response to the EC, but has not yet received a response.

GKI is a Hungarian private economic research institute specializing in economic analysis and forecasting. Specializes in economic policy analysis and forecasting, EU economic policy impact analysis, financial and market analysis, strategic decision forecasting, research and econometric market research, industry, sectoral and regional reporting. is. writes.

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