Soon, Latvian citizens will go to vote to create a new Saeima for the next four years. This year’s pre-election season hasn’t changed much from previous election seasons, with the same stories being told in the media about the same political parties. However, there are more than usual. All of them are full of commitment. Put many faces on billboards, frequent promotional trips and other campaigns to attract voters. Political experts are here to clarify things and explain the situation.
For the past 30 years, political scientist Filips Rajevskis has commented and analyzed political developments in various media channels in Latvia. He has extensive experience in public relations and lobbying, financial and energy public relations, and crisis topics. Rajevskis has a degree in Political Science and received his degree from the University of Latvia. He also studied political science at the University of Wales.
Filips Rajevskis was the oldest National Guard soldier in the National Guard’s 19th Combat Regulation Battalion for eight years. He says: if we don’t organize our own defense, who will?
As for the upcoming 14th Saeima elections, Filips Rajevskis gives Ventspilnieks his outlook on the political forecast for this fall.
――Looking at the current audience ratings, the 14th generation Saima seems to be quite split. How much can you trust the ratings?
– Ratings are reliable, but they only reflect trends. Don’t expect ratings to give you absolute answers to all questions. You can see the dynamics of a particular party – whether it’s positive or negative. Ratings can be used to draw conclusions and form perspectives. But you have to remember that ratings are basically “yesterday’s pictures”. This is why anyone trying to interpret ratings as predictions should be careful. This is not always the case. I believe that evaluations are indicators and allow certain conclusions.When organizing a campaign, you can see how effective certain steps or measures are. For example, if you have a lot of scandals, this will affect your rating, which is usually negative. The memory of voters is the theory that he lasts for six months. The memory of Latvian voters he thinks lasts three months. Nevertheless, people remember unpleasant things much longer, while small scandals are quickly forgotten.
-In the pre-election period, many social network users filled out surveys to describe their beliefs and stances about which political party would be most suitable to govern. Are such questionnaires sociologically justified and are their results worthy of consideration?
– I do not believe in these means. Because politics we are here in is not ideologically clean enough to allow for simple and precise measurements. I call it a kind of game, like many others on social networks, where you enter your name and find out all sorts of information about yourself.
– As usual, political parties promise maternity benefits worth €5,000, caps on heating prices, price cuts on medicines, cancer treatments and more.
・Price cuts for medicines can be made regardless of elections. The situation in Latvia is particularly bad in this respect. We all know that the pharmaceutical market is held by a single business group. We’ve long heard talk of changes to make medicines more accessible, increase competition and force drug companies to cut markups.
For large profits or price caps, the state must compensate for the difference. Otherwise, you risk losing money as suppliers look for places to sell their goods or present more expensive offers. Price Caps – These work. someone has to pay the difference. For example, if fuel has a price cap, let’s say 1 euro/liter. We all know that it now costs close to 1.5 euros/liter, but most gasoline trading companies just stop selling their goods in our country. If this happens, we’ll have to wait until the world price drops to €1 and it becomes profitable to sell fuel here again. This is why one must be very careful when hearing such promises, as someone will have to pay.
– Is there hope that people will be more accountable this time around than in the municipal elections where voter activity was record low at 34%? How can we encourage people to vote?
-Historically, there has been a tendency for people disappointed with their previous choices to find new favorites, leading to reduced participation in elections and lower activity for other voters. The next Saejima party may be even more disjointed than it is now.
Yes, we hope that the percentage of eligible voters participating in the election this time will be between 40% and 50%. Like I said – if you don’t want idiots in Saejima go and vote!
-There is a saying that an old and well-known evil is better than a new and unknown evil. Do you agree that you are more likely to choose?
– In general, people’s desire to improvise drops when there is crisis or uncertainty. Voters are ready to take risks when their situation is not in jeopardy. Then people think about changing things – maybe things will get better.
We are all well aware that things can get worse, and as the data from the last 30 years shows, when times get tough people usually turn conservative in their own interests. more open-minded and less welcoming of political experiments.
–Lemberg as prime minister! Why do some people still choose to step on this particular rake over and over?
– I will answer your second question. I think it is impossible for Mr. Renberg to become Prime Minister of Latvia. This possibility is made impossible by court hearings, issues of access to public secrets, and possible opposition from political parties. A parallel can be drawn with the Ventspils City Council. There is an opinion that it is impossible for the party headed by Lemberg to head the city council. And now Lemberg is no longer the mayor of Ventspils.
There is a collection of conditions that eliminate the possibility of him being in charge. Aivars Lembergs is a very influential person and a talented speaker. He can formulate his thoughts very well. But the problem is he’s not getting younger, nor are his voters. We’ll find out on October 2nd how he does. Still, the ratings don’t suggest a breakthrough.
25% of voters are so-called candidates. Their votes are usually evenly distributed among the leaders. The Green Farmers Coalition thinks “Making Renberg Prime Minister” is a safe bet, but there is nothing to indicate that he can get a 25% majority of the vote.
-What can we expect from this heating season? Has the government done enough? Do political parties have clear and comprehensive plans to fight inflation?
– Many will be found after October 2nd. The rhetoric used by all political parties now focuses on residents and their ability to pay. How can you prevent debt from piling up? The current government has become particularly generous to all kinds of benefits in its final stages. The reason is.
Right now, people’s minds are preoccupied with the upcoming elections and the tense geopolitical situation. In this context, Latvia’s domestic policy and the associated national security risks are some of the most important topics at the moment. This is why the topic of the Defense Service is so popular these days. what will it give us? Isn’t the National Guard enough?
No, the National Guard is definitely not enough. there are too few of us. Not many young people. The National Guard thinks he’s more suitable for people over 30. Young people of school age have junior guards. After that, you can choose a career in the military or the National Guard. Beyond this, there are many who have no interest in the military and would never enter the vocational military service or the National Guard. It is beneficial to have Society generally needs basic knowledge and skills to feel more secure as a community. If people have experience working actively with the military, including the National Guard, they will be far more likely to receive mandatory military service.
National armed forces are very popular in Latvia. People trust the military and the National Guard is part of the military. Our military and National Guard have attended many important events over the years. They have provided assistance to social, state and municipal agencies. Compulsory military service is like a society’s vaccine against crisis. For a young man who has reached maturity, that is the moment when he becomes a real man. We have heard positive feedback from parents of young people who are excited to participate in reservist training.
-What advice would you give to future voters?
-First, look at the promotional materials. Each voter should ask himself a few questions.
- Has the quality of life improved during this administration?
- Has the current government acted in the best interests of its citizens?
- How would voters describe the health and education situation?
I encourage all citizens to vote and cross out the names of politicians they hate!
https://bnn-news.com/politologists-thoughts-on-14th-saeima-elections-promises-ratings-voters-habits-and-national-security-238619 Political Scientists’ Thoughts on the 14th Saeima Election – Pledges, Ratings, Voter Habits, National Security – Baltic News Network