SAB: Russia’s regime change unlikely due to Putin’s illness or coup d’état – Baltic News Network

Since February 2022, various media outlets have been reporting an increasing number of claims and assumptions about possible political changes within Russia’s power system, such as the loss of power by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rather, it predicts Russia’s economic or regional collapse, says the Latvian Constitutional Protection Agency (SAB). ).

On Thursday, November 24th, SAB published the third article in a series of analytical articles on various important social issues. This time, SAB comments on the stability of Vladimir’s Putin regime and analyzes the possibilities for various political changes.

According to the SAB, Russia’s political system had long been relatively stable, but the war in Ukraine, its length, and Ukrainian and Western resistance only increased tensions between social and political elites. The regime employs various tactics to maintain the status quo, which also poses long-term risks.

Russia’s current regime is the result of more than two decades of consolidation with Vladimir Putin as the central fulcrum of power. The powers of the President of Russia in the current administration consist of a wide range of powers that this post has in foreign and domestic policy, as well as various political and economic influence and interest groups that prevent individual groups from gaining dominant power. It stems from Putin’s role as a balancing element between position. The influence groups and their relationships that make up the system are not static, competing with each other or working together from time to time to change the way they influence political direction.

One of the purposes of this system is to ensure stability and protect its leader, Putin, from criticism. Instead, he is presented as a successful leader and protector of Russia and its inhabitants.

A weakness of this regime is its rapid and systematic instability, with the president rendered powerless and deemed insufficiently powerful to defend the interests of the country and influential groups. points out SAB. Under this system, which was formed around President Putin, there is no procedure for what to do in the event of a change in leadership, which could lead to fights over which group wins the presidency.

Considering this narrow scope within which all decisions are made, and considering the failure of those decisions, Russia’s war in Ukraine puts pressure on Putin’s position and his system, and representatives of multiple groups are being forced to express their discontent with the groups responsible for the war and louder. At the same time, according to the SAB, publicly criticizing Putin is dangerous, even if there have been some cases in public.

SAB believes that a coup in Russia is unlikely under the current circumstances.

Existing rivalries and discord among these groups related to political opportunism are within the boundaries of the System but do not jeopardize the political course or existence of the System. The elite are trying to avoid responsibility for their recent failures. Proponents of aggressive wars use it to increase their political capital and influence the battlefield and internal policy. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense and military have been branded as scapegoats, weakening their position and making them attractive targets for other opportunist ambitions, he stresses the SAB.

In the current situation, an uprising against the regime carries too many risks for the elite. To avoid jeopardizing their position and access to resources, the elite are forced to adapt to existing conditions, including integration around Putin. These members of the Wright may change their minds if the Russian army is defeated on the battlefield. Because they don’t want to be among the losers. Russia’s elite may be affected by the president’s rapidly deteriorating health, which undermines his ability to manage the country.

At this point, there is no reason to assume that Putin’s health is bad enough to threaten regime stability.

Over the past few years, the Kremlin has made aggressive moves to trample all kinds of political opposition and independent media, greatly reducing its ability to participate in decision-making and influence Russia’s strategic course. In its domestic messages, the Kremlin regularly employs arguments about Russia’s survival and its fight against Russian traitors. Because steps are taken to discredit anyone who challenges the policies adopted by the This is demonstrated by recent mobilizations in Russia. This fuels public dissatisfaction with Russia’s political orientation and socioeconomic tensions. But without opposition leaders and a strong independent media, the Russian population tends to adapt to the situation in order to avoid a counterattack from the regime. For this reason, while large-scale protests are not expected any time soon, local and isolated pockets of discontent have already occurred and are likely to occur in the future. The need to ensure doctrine and political apathy is one of the reasons the intelligence and security services have recently risen to prominence in Russia.

Potential political instability also hints at the possibility of Russia’s territorial collapse. This is also considered unlikely.

At the same time, in some regions such as the North Caucasus and the National Republic, there are embers of resistance, especially based on ethnic and religious differences among the inhabitants of Russia. Nevertheless, the regions of Russia are closely tied to the state and are financially and energetically dependent on it. The region also lacks the experience and tools for political independence. Regional governments respond to Moscow restricting its ability to act autonomously. For example, if Moscow’s position were weakened as a result of domestic infighting, the need for autonomy or independence could surface. This can also affect the ability of intelligence and security services to keep local populations under control.

So far, Russia has been able to ensure financial stability. This is mainly due to the soaring price of energy resources. But the continued need to divert resources to stabilize the economy, combined with the costs of the growth war, means that Russia’s costs are beginning to outpace revenues. This trend is expected to continue for several years. To compensate for this, Russia created reserves. There is also the option to mobilize economic resources. This will allow Russia to make up for lost income while jeopardizing economic development.

In general, a change of leadership in Russia with Putin out of office due to health problems or a coup is unlikely. Integrated. The SAB considers it impossible to change the course of Russia’s foreign policy if Russia’s existing political elite remain. The state will continue to take steps to maintain control of its imagined sphere of influence and will continue to direct actions to influence the policies of other countries in favor of Russia.

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