Middle East

Saddle needs to play chess to form Iraqi government

Shiite leader Mokutada al-Sadr has the numerical advantage of managing the formation of government, but it needs to juggle some moving parts.

Despite two months after the Iraqi elections, no major progress has been made towards the formation of a government. Sadlist Brock, led by Shiite leader Mokutada al-Sadr, secured 73 seats and claimed victory, while the pro-Iranian Fata Alliance won only 17 seats in a 329-seat parliament.

saddle I want to establish The “national majority government” (Brock must have more than half of the parliamentary seats) is calling for disarmament if Iran-backed militias want to participate.

Pro-Iranians, including most political parties, favor a “consensus government” in which government members are responsible first to their leaders and then to the prime minister. Concerns about the exclusion of pro-Iranians from the new government add to the uncertainty.

In the new order established in Iraq since 2003, the Shiites, who make up almost 60 percent of the population, are the main political decision makers.

With ethnic groups and denominations Quota systemThe president was assigned to the Kurds, the prime minister to the Shiites, and the chairman of the parliament to the Sunnis.

Assigning executive positions to Shiite leaders opens up Iran’s space in Iraqi politics. The government is headed by Shiites, but the law primarily gives the largest block the task of forming the government.

Sadr said in his “Nationalist agenda, “This goes against both Iran’s rule and the existence of the United States.

The Takadam Alliance and the Asm Alliance are already I agreed Form a Sunni block that is expected to support Sadr. With Sunnis support The Kurdish KDP, which has secured 31 seats, gives the saddle a sufficient majority to form a government.

The potential support of PUK, another Kurdish party with 17 seats, will further strengthen Saddle’s hand. Several small Shiite groups and the Turkmen front in Iraq are also likely to join the majority government in the saddle. In that scenario, the parent Iranian group could be completely excluded from the government.

consensus?

Since 2005, the National Consensus Government has destroyed the domestic political system and acknowledged Iran’s massive influence in Iraq.The government that Saddle founded with pro-Iranians in 2018 Capsize After a large protest against corruption and the effects of Iran.

Pro-Iranian militias have been accused of their brutality, Death of 600 protesters.. With Iran’s growing influence and growing domestic opposition to the consensus government, Saddle has no intention of establishing such a government, even if it means sitting in opposition.

Saddle’s skepticism about the Iran-backed Fata Alliance is not a secret.Noticed the discord, Fatah Was sued To invalidate elections and put pressure on the Independent Higher Election Commission through the militias they control.

Iranian parents of power

If Saddle’s national majority government plan fails, Saddle abandons negotiations and Claim Opposition leadership. Given the frequent negotiations that saddles have been involved in and the promotion of saddles as the “savior” of the country, this option can be difficult.Given his unexpected U-turn as follows: Boycott of elections And by participating, the saddle may choose to sit in the opposite direction.

In the scenario that Saddle opposes, pro-Iranians are most likely to take power, and Kurds and Sunnis are most likely to join the government. Sunnis and Kurds do not take a decisive stance to watch the competition between Shiites.

While the new Sunni leaders are very practical and closely related to Iran, the Kurds generally focus on being a government stakeholder.

However, Saddle’s position in the opposition will lead to frequent protests against the government, given his power. mobilization Many. Such a scenario could lead to a military conflict with pro-Iranian militias and harm Iraq’s vulnerable security. This could lead to more influential Iran, but the space in Turkey and the Gulf would be even smaller.

Sadr’s advantage

The most difficult option is to invalidate the election. Due to the Fata Alliance proceedings seeking to destroy the election results, the process of government formation has become Approval The Supreme Federal Court couldn’t start.

The court will announce the decision in the next few days. If abolished, the reputation of pro-Iranian groups will be further damaged by the Iraqi eyes, and the saddle’s approach to these groups will be more stringent.

Sadr is familiar with his mathematical advantage. Therefore, he wants to establish a government within the framework he desires. Eliminating pro-Iranians can increase the likelihood of violence, although Sunni and Kurdish majority governments are the most likely options.

Iran will not wait and see its power diminish after the boost it received from the withdrawal of the United States.

Iran may be obliged to encourage its agents to join the saddle administration, even if the representative is weakened, as it may lose profits in Iraq.

Iran’s economic crisis and ongoing negotiations can be expected to make Iran more flexible. Nuclear agreement.. In this context, without compromising his role as a “savior,” Saddle was able to attempt to form a government by giving a group of pro-Iranians a limited space he could still control.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views, views and editorial policies of TRT World.

All suggestions and submissions to the TRT World Opinion are welcome – email us at opinion.editorial@trtworld.com.

https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/sadr-will-need-to-play-chess-to-form-iraq-s-government-53155?utm_source=other&utm_medium=rss Saddle needs to play chess to form Iraqi government

Show More
Back to top button