The “axis of good” and the Turkish dilemma

Recent visits by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Legep Typ Erdogan to Tehran, the capital of Iran, are on the cross of the world’s great powers. Russia and Iran share a common agenda and have long been at the forefront of anti-American campaigns, but it is strange because Turkey is not only an old American ally, but also a current active NATO member. Existence. ..

As Russia, Iran and Turkey rally, they called the coalition “Axis of Evil” against the American term President George W. Bush used the trio of Iran, Iraq and North Korea as “Axis of Evil”. I call it. Russia and Iran have suffered so much in the hands of the United States in the past that they have a common reason for forming an anti-American coalition, but an analysis of why Turkey joined them and how it would benefit Turkey. It’s a problem to be done. Also, do we need to analyze the Turkish dilemma and the factors that allow the United States to digest its old allies and NATO members participating in the anti-US alliance and not take disciplinary action? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eager to join the coalition, and while his intentions are clear, there are many factors that need to be analyzed.

We also need to determine if Turkey will be accepted into a Russian-led coalition, or if its role remains an intermediary, as it happened during the recent grain transshipment agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The real Turkish dilemma and its factors need to be analyzed well.

1. Turkish economy -Turkey is in a very bad position as far as the country’s economic situation is concerned. Monthly inflation is approaching 80% and the currency is plummeting. Turkey has been hit hard by the effects of the European debt crisis in 2012 and the threat of high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve Board in 2013, and has been unable to recover since then. Just five years ago, the price of the US dollar was about 3.5 lira, but now it has reached 18 lira. This is more than 500% inflation. In the current situation, Prime Minister Erdogan is well aware that his country cannot survive under the influence of the European Union and the United States, so he is looking for allies outside Europe and the United States.

2. Establish a position as an arms exporter -In the last decade, Turkey has realized that it can establish itself as an arms exporter in the world. Since then, it has supplied fighters in the Georgia War, the Armenian War, and several other conflicts. It is also one of the world’s leading suppliers of armed drones. Turkey is well aware that if it remains a NATO member in the shadow of the United States, the world’s largest arms exporter, it will face challenges in achieving its objectives. Perhaps this Erdogan conference in Tehran is aimed at creating a new ally. Turkey wants to open a new front outside NATO to sell its war machinery.

3. Syrian crisis -Turkey is a typical Sunni Islamic State, while Iran is a Shiite nation. Turkey supports the opposition as Iran and Russia back the coalition of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian Wars. Turkey not only provided shelters for these anti-Assad groups on its territory, but also helped them with war machinery, logistics, training, battlefield intelligence and operational planning. Kurdish factors are also a problem. Both Russia and Iran have suffered a lot in the past, and as long as they continue to support Syria’s anti-Assad forces, they are very unlikely to accept Turkey in a coalition.

4. Erdogan’s dream of revitalizing the glory of the Ottoman Empire -Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly stated that he wants to rejuvenate the glory of the old Ottoman Empire, which once ruled half the world. This is like a neo-Nazi thinking process and can be dangerous to the world. A similar idea in Germany after World War I gave birth to Hitler. Prime Minister Erdogan cannot do this until he remains a member of NATO, so to achieve this goal he must create a new ally, open a new front and join a new coalition.

5. Impact on world order -Turkey’s geographic location is like acting as a barrier between Asia and Europe, and Turkey now wants to make the best use of this factor. While showing a tendency to participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it plans to become part of the Russian-led North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This has different implications for world order and country grouping. Turkey’s main purpose is to stabilize its economy, but in the long run, we want the world to recognize that Turkey can also become a world power.

Turkey’s intentions are full of expectations and assumptions, but in today’s scenario where the country itself is suffering from economic and identity crises, joining the coalition can backfire for Erdogan, a situation like that. So balancing the scale of power is very important and difficult.