The EBRD further lowered its forecasts for the Bulgarian economy until

Only two months from the latest forecast for Bulgaria Economy, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has released a new, more pessimistic assessment.According to it, in 2022 Bulgaria Banks expect growth of 2.8% in March (after Russia’s attack on Ukraine), dropping to 2.5% of GDP after the November 2021 forecast was almost double optimistic (+ 4.4%). bottom.

This is almost double the result last year (+ 4.2%), down 0.6% compared to March, and the 2023 forecast is up to 3% growth.

for BulgariaRussia’s gas has already been cut off, but if Moscow decides to stop supplying gas prior to sanctions on Europe, per capita production in 40 countries will be EBRD Operations will decrease by 2.3% this year and 2% next year.

This means it will take a few more quarters to keep up with pre-pandemic development trends.

In just eight weeks, banks have significantly adjusted their expectations for their impact on Ukraine, as Russia has not stopped the war in Ukraine. Economy -From a 20% reduction to a 30% reduction on an annual basis.

How, according to EBRDWill Russia develop a scenario in which it will stop supplying gas to everyone in Europe earlier than planned?

Invaders also pay a lot price -Currently 10% recession, stagnant next year. “Nine years of growth will disappear” EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorchik told Reuters. And this is just the beginning, as the effects of sanctions can be felt in the medium to long term. “”Russia is separated from the world’s knowledge resources, which is the best price It will pay,“She said.

“”Crazy price revival“Is the title of the forecast, which underscores the main problem-unprecedented rises in energy and food prices over the years. Inflation is for economies such as Northern Macedonia, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan. More than 25% of which will be a particularly serious problem price index. In all regions from Central Asia to Morocco, average inflation in March reached 11.9%, the highest level since the end of 2008.

The impact of war / sanctions on oil price (left) and grain (right) movements.

especially BulgariaIn addition to Russia’s dependence on imports (nearly 10% of GDP in 2020), the impact of the war is felt on prices, Bulgarian consumers have expensive energy and food and our income is low.

“Given the low levels of public debt, the government has financial room to adopt short-term measures to combat inflation. The Cabinet has limited capacity to absorb it in the short term. It may have been, but we promise to increase public investment.“The report said. “Following the delay in recovery plans, the increase in EU funding Economy After 2023. “

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