By 2026, the world faces a 50% potential for warming, 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts.
This does not mean that the world will exceed the long-term warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is what scientists have set as an upper limit to avoid catastrophic climate change. However, a year of warming at 1.5 degrees can be seen as what it would be like to exceed its long-term threshold, including more extreme weather events.
A global heating limit of 1.5 degrees is set by the international government under the Paris Agreement. According to a study led by the Met Office, the chances of this happening in the next five years were zero until 2015, but it surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021, with global average temperatures. Was 1.1 degrees. It is above the level before the 2021 Industrial Revolution.
Warming, which is projected to exceed two degrees in this century, is predicted by several studies based on current trends and global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG).
It is also almost certain that by 2026 the year will be the hottest ever recorded and that the natural El Nino climate event will exceed 2016, when temperatures overheated (93%). It is also almost certain that the average temperature over the next five years will be higher than in the last five years as the climate crisis worsens.
“The 1.5 degree number is not a random statistic, but rather an indicator of how climate impacts are becoming more and more harmful to people, and in fact to the planet as a whole,” said WMO Head Professor. Petterita ArrasPublished a new report.
“As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise. In addition, our oceans will continue to warm and become acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, and sea levels will continue to rise. Our weather will be more extreme. ”
The natural climate cycle can raise or lower the temperature of the world in a particular year. However, the Paris Agreement requires states to pursue efforts to limit the fundamental rise caused by human activity to less than 2 degrees and to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees.
Through the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists around the world warned in 2018 that 1.5 degrees of global heating would have serious implications for billions of people.
“A one-year excess above 1.5 degrees does not mean that we have violated the symbolic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does indicate that we are even closer to a situation where we may exceed 1.5 degrees for a long time. “I am,” said Dr. Leon Hermansson At the Japan Meteorological Agency.
“I’m worried about the possibility of exceeding the 1.5 degree threshold, even for just one year,” Dr said. Andrew King At the University of Melbourne.
“Our greenhouse gas emissions are still at record highs and global warming will continue until emissions reach zero net. There is an urgent need for rapid and drastic emission reductions. increase.”
The report shows that the world is approaching the limits of Paris unpleasantly, the professor said. Stephen Sherwood At the University of New South Wales. “If we don’t take that action, we’ll have much worse heat waves and wildfire conditions, and a coral reef that has been decimated beyond our perception,” he warned.
This report looks at year-over-year natural fluctuations in global mean temperatures (due to the El Nino cycle, for example) and the possibility that one warm year will exceed Paris’ target warming threshold in the near future. He explained that there was great potential.
“But if that happens, it doesn’t mean that we’ve exceeded our target, because the target is the underlying average temperature, excluding year-over-year natural fluctuations,” says Professor Sherwood. I am.
“actually [PARIS]He added that the goal of having to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius even in “normal years” – unaffected by natural climate change.
Annual WMO Forecast utilizes the best forecasting systems from climate centers around the world to generate actionable information for decision makers.
It turns out that there is a high probability of rain in 2022, compared to the average for the last 30 years in the north. Europe, SahelNortheast Brazil When AustraliaAlthough it is predicted that southern and southwestern Europe will be drier than usual. North America..
Professor Taalas also warned of a particularly rapid heating in the Arctic. “Arctic warming is disproportionately high, and what happens in the Arctic affects us all.”
Sea ice shrinkage and its knock-on effect are in Europe, North America, and AsiaIncludes heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and even blizzards.
Arctic temperature rises are projected to triple the global average over the next five years.Additional Report – Guardian
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/target-of-limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-to-be-exceeded-by-2026-wmo-warns-1.4874625?localLinksEnabled=false The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2026 has been warned by the WMO