Some are discussing possible war scenarios, while others want Russia to reach an agreement with the West on a new cross-border security architecture in Europe.
In early December, media reports estimated that Russia’s expansion along the Ukrainian border was about 90,000. After more than a month, these estimates are Touched over 127,000 Western media are actively reporting on the possibility of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It’s obvious Russia-Ukraine tension Escalating, does Russia really invade neighboring countries? Closely related to Moscow Through historical, cultural, religious and ethnic connections? Or are they just trying to send a political message through a military bend?
Some Western analysts argue that Russia could surprise us under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. In 2014, Russia’s “Little Green Men” easily dominated Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Now, they ask why Ukraine shouldn’t come next.
However, Moscow-based Eurasian analyst Eslev Yarinkirikli does not expect a surprising move from Putin or Russia. “They are very talented students of Hans Joachim Morgentau,” says Yarin Kirikuri, referring to the Kremlin’s elite’s realistic political approach.
Morgenthau is a German-born American political scientist and one of the founders of the Realist School of International Relations.
But even some Russian analysts, such as former Moscow diplomat Vladimir Frolov, see both positions in the Ukrainian crisis as follows: “Incompatible”, The recent development of the Kremlin in Belarus is described as a “huge escalation”. Belarus is a Ukrainian pro-Russian Western neighbor.
“Apart from the surrender of the United States and their handing over Ukraine to Russia, I think some military options are now almost inevitable,” he said. A former Russian diplomat said. He also has little hope from the meeting between Russian and American foreign ministers in Geneva on Friday.
Yalinkilicli does not completely deny the idea of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s ongoing development along the Ukrainian border is primarily to establish a “new security architecture” throughout Europe. We believe that the aim is to enhance the bargaining power of Moscow in negotiations with the West.
He hopes Russia will put an end to NATO’s ambitious expansion program across the Baltic region near Eastern Europe and Russia’s western border. This raises serious concerns for the Kremlin.
Moscow believes that talks related to Ukraine’s accession to the Atlantic Alliance are the latest example of a NATO program initiated using the collapse of the Soviet Union as an opportunity to expand the regional alliance.
“The Ukraine crisis has transformed Kiev into a controversial political foundation, where both Russia and the Western Alliance have expressed security reservations for each other’s actions. It symbolizes the war of their words, “says Yalinkilicli.
“This is a zero-sum game and Russia doesn’t want to play it anymore,” he says. “We either respond to my suggestions or act,” says Moscow.
What Russia can offer
Russia’s Ukrainian operation is directly related to communicating its political message to the Western Union. “Russia’s greatest deterrence is its hard power, in other words, its powerful military force to convince its enemies to form a new security architecture across Europe to ensure long-term stability of the continent,” Moscow said. Says an analyst based in Moscow.
But what is this security architecture?
In December, a Russian delegation shared a package under “security” with the United States, NATO and the EU on a proposal to establish long-term stability in Europe.
According to the package, Ukraine and Georgia, which are Caucasian countries with pro-Western governments, should not be accepted for NATO accession. Russia and NATO should also not deploy military forces near each other’s borders in Europe, the package states. This includes all military bases, means and neutral nations.
Russia also urges NATO not to deploy military force to countries that have joined since 1997. This is a date that means another level of the Atlantic Alliance Expansion Program.
Throughout Europe, NATO is calling for another request for a Russian package that new nuclear facilities should not be opened and that European countries should not be given nuclear weapons. According to the package, this rule also applies to Russia.
Russia’s proposal seems to fill the security gap that arose not only after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but also after the withdrawal of the United States and Russia from two important military treaties aimed at monitoring the arms race. Looks like.
In 2019, both countries withdrew INF Treaty, It concerns the elimination of medium- and short-range missiles between the United States and the Soviet Union.They also pulled out from Treaty on Open Skies, This was intended to ensure unarmed aerial surveillance flights in areas accessible by both countries.
However, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) is still in place between the United States and Russia. “If they also withdraw from the treaty, it means returning to the pre-1960 state (which was the worst day of the Cold War),” says Yalinkilicli.
This week, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave hints on Russia’s plans if Russia’s demands were not met by the Western Alliance, like Cuba and Venezuela, where Moscow is a friendly Latin American state. It was suggested that missiles could be deployed in various countries.
Peskov’s proposal also evoked memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis between the two superpowers. “The current Ukrainian crisis is very similar to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis,” says Yalinkilicli.
He added that in Ukrainian policy, the Kremlin relies not only on its army, but also on the indecisive nature of the Western Alliance.
What Happens in Eastern Ukraine
This region is the boiling point between Russia and Ukraine.
“Eastern Ukraine is virtually under Russian control. Moscow has also handed Russian passports to at least 600,000 Ukrainian Russians living in the region. They can easily enter Russia and Russia. You can do everything from marriage to trade activities just like a person. Last year, Putin also signed a decree on the integration of the Donetsk and Ruhansik regions into Russia, “says Yarinkirikri.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions are located in eastern Ukraine.
“Alongside the Wagner Group, Russian paramilitaries are also active in eastern Ukraine. There is no real reason for Russia to launch a military invasion of the region,” says Yalinkilicli. As a result, Eurasian analysts found that Western discussions on possible war scenarios were unnecessary.
“Russia is always pursuing a realist approach to its political interests, but at the same time, the Russian state is always military if it fails to achieve the results aimed at overcoming diplomacy. We keep our options open, “Yarin Kirikuri added.
Luke Coffey, director of the Foreign Policy Center of the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, wrote about the situation in eastern Ukraine during the debate. Ukraine-Russia war scenario last month.
“The most effective way for Russia to achieve this goal is to” freeze “the conflict in eastern Ukraine. That is, major battles stop, but local battles remain without a definitive end to the conflict. This means using the armed forces at the border as a political influence, not as a real invader. “ Coffey wrote, I will explain this non-exercise scenario.
Source: TRT World
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-does-russia-hope-to-achieve-with-its-escalation-in-ukraine-53848?utm_source=other&utm_medium=rss What does Russia want to achieve with its expansion in Ukraine?