Middle East

What does the Russian invasion really look like?These are the three most probable scenarios

Somerset: Despite the opposition from the Kremlin, Ukraine remains surrounded by Russian troops along its long border with Russia and from within the occupied Crimea. The Russian Federation has deployed the Army, Air Force, and Navy, which offer a variety of possibilities for the Kremlin to initiate military operations.

Not for the first time, Russian troops appear ready to challenge Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the West is approaching to know what to do about it without risking a war between nuclear-armed nations. It doesn’t seem to be.

Russia has laid the groundwork for military action against Ukraine since 2014, when it occupied the Crimean Peninsula and thereby gained a more substantive military foothold in the South.

Meanwhile, the ongoing war in the Donbus region of Ukraine allowed Russian security and intelligence forces to continue to measure Ukrainian military and quasi-military operations.

In the spring of 2021, the Russian Federation stepped up its actions against Ukraine, leading to no actual war.

Launched cyber attacks and false alarm campaigns, disrupting energy supply.

The Ukrainian Security Agency has identified operational and sleeping units from Russia’s Federal Security Agency, Foreign Intelligence Service, Military Intelligence Service, and special forces operating within its borders.

When a military action occurs, there are three possible scenarios for how it is carried out.

The first is the decapitation approach. Russian troops and security forces aim to remove the power of the current government and states and replace them with people in favor of (and owning) Moscow.

Perhaps surprisingly, this will require the retention of some people who are already working in Ukraine.

There are people who have sympathized with and cooperated with the Russian Federation.

This scenario will probably require a security and intelligence unit on the ground in Ukraine and a unit of military exercises currently being conducted in Belarus. Russia’s greatest concern in this scenario is how Ukrainian troops and police will respond.

There may be a great deal of public opposition to the change of power led by Moscow.

The second possibility is the Eastern War approach. Here, the Russian army seeks to strengthen Donbas’s secession area with weapons, supplies and information.

These areas will be used as stepping stones to occupy more Ukrainian territory in order to more completely cover areas with Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Such an operation could take Russian troops to the Dnieper River, which divides the country into east and west. It can also extend beyond the Black Sea coast to the Moldova border, where another Russian strengthened secession area is located.

Such operations include troops stationed in and around the Russian region of Rostov-on-Don, east of Ukraine, troops stationed in the south of Crimea, and perhaps Russian motors stationed in the separated Transnistoria. Will be supported by a corps of rifles. In Moldova.

The last possibility is a complete intrusion approach.

All the units mentioned so far and the aviation units located further north try to defeat Ukraine militarily.

They will take advantage of their recent experience in combat operations in Syria to defeat general rebellions against Russian troops.

This approach will be devastating for the Ukrainian people. Massive deaths are expected among Ukrainian troops and police, as well as locals adjacent to the fighting.

There is a large influx of refugees into Poland, Hungary, Romania and Moldova, which border the western part of Ukraine.

Such a refugee crisis could be the greatest crisis in Europe since World War II.

It is important to note that these approaches are not mutually exclusive.

If the Kremlin is dissatisfied with the changes found in Ukraine or the West, they can even occur in succession.

Whatever Russia is doing, other countries with unresolved disputes over secession areas, such as Moldova with Transnistria and Georgia with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, are nervously watching the event. ..

For Russia, the victory in Ukraine could fuel action against these countries in the future.

And even countries like Estonia and Latvia could face threats in the future if the West cannot respond well.

Russia’s military threat to Ukraine put the West in a difficult position. You need to decide how to deal with the warlike Russia and how far its membership should be extended to Ukraine, Georgia and so on.

Also, these plights are not helped by the fact that the United States is more interested in China, the South China Sea, and the recent position of Taiwan than the fate of Eastern Europe.

Moreover, the very future of NATO may be at a loss if Ukraine cannot be credibly responded to through diplomacy, military aid, and perhaps military response.

Such a loss of trust would be a major victory for Russia, which sees NATO as a threat to its national security and global strategy to regain power. In other words, the importance of the situation in Ukraine cannot be underestimated.

https://www.siasat.com/ukraine-what-would-a-russian-invasion-actually-look-like-these-are-the-three-most-likely-scenarios-2277723/ What does the Russian invasion really look like?These are the three most probable scenarios

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