What options does Russia need to invade Ukraine?

Moscow and Kiev are on the verge of a major conflict after Russian President Vladimir Putin Sent his army to eastern Ukraine On Monday, many experts are discussing how great the potential invasion of Ukraine is.

Since Russia merged the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, the world has continued to discuss Putin’s next move towards Kiev, and political leaders from Washington to Moscow, Paris and Berlin have possible solutions in various forms. I have been negotiating a plan.

Gregory Simons, an associate professor at the Russian Eurasian Institute at Uppsala University, has accused the United States and its western partners of “not taking meaningful negotiations seriously.”

Now everyone is focusing on what will happen to Russia’s next move.

“President Putin simply invades Donbus overnight, does not go any further, and integrates what he sees as a political interest there into a full-scale invasion, enough to pursue a wide range of scenarios. “We have gathered a lot of Russian troops,” says former Matthew Briza, a US diplomat to Azerbaijan, the former Soviet Republic.

The mineral-rich Donbas region partially covers the pro-Russian secession region of eastern Ukraine, which Putin recognized as an independent country yesterday, but much of this region is controlled by the Ukrainian government.

Acquire eastern Ukraine

Russia may annex Eastern Ukraine, similar to Crimea, after the pro-Russian president was overthrown by anti-Russian mass protests eight years ago. Since 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk have been located in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, claiming to be a separatist destination for pro-Russia and forming their own republic.

Putin’s recognition of these two separatist regions as independent states shows the potential for annexation. On the Crimean Peninsula, a pro-Russian political group on the peninsula declared independence from Ukraine, after which a region located in the Black Sea joined Russia after a referendum.

But is that enough for Putin?

“This is a limited operation [in regard to separatist regions]”Simmons says TRT world. He compares Russia’s move to eastern Ukraine with the 2008 Moscow Georgia War, which assisted two secessionists, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, apart from the pro-Western Caucasus countries. In 2008, “it wasn’t the whole of Georgia,” he says.

“Moscow has no influence on Ukraine, so doing nothing would really threaten Russia’s security. Everything will be with them. [Western alliance]..They are [Russians] It will have a very hostile border with Ukraine as a whole, “says Simons, referring to Kiev’s close relationship with NATO.

“They don’t want to go to Ukraine,” says the professor, despite the fact that US President Joe Biden urged them to do so. “They have absolutely nothing. They’re just trapped. If you commit, how long can you commit? Where do you stop?” He asks.

But Briza sees another political image.

“It’s not clear if he will move any further, it all depends on how tightly the transatlantic community imposes penalties on Russia,” says Briza. TRT WorldMentions NATO’s reaction to Putin’s move in Ukraine.

German announcement Suspending Nord Stream II pipeline project A former diplomat added that it is a clear sign of future Western action on Russia. But beyond the power of western sanctions, Putin may also be content to retain eastern Ukraine. Because the secession area has significant reserves of coal, oil, and gas.

Their total loss will hurt the Ukrainian economy.Ukraine is the largest land country in Europe (excluding Russia) and is the largest country in the world. 7th largest coal reserves.. Donbas region, which contains two pro-Russian separatist entities, Holds 92.4% Of Ukrainian reserves.

Ukraine’s largest gas and oil fields Located in the separatist region of Donetsk.

After losing the precious Crimean Peninsula with many tourist attractions, the loss of the mineral-rich Donbas region can destabilize the Ukrainian economy and lead to political instability-in favor of Russia. increase.

Under severe pressure from Russia, Kiev can succumb Ukrainian federalizationIncorporate the eastern separatist region into the country, in line with Moscow’s demands. Moscow then has a say in the Ukrainian Parliament. This means affecting the political path of the country.

Disconnect Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea

Centuries ago, Russia was a landlocked country long before it became a dominant nation, dreaming of reaching warm waters like the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. After several battles with the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire in the late 18th century invaded parts of the Black Sea coast, including the Crimean Peninsula, and achieved ambition.

But under the Soviet Union, Some prominent Ukrainian-born communist leaders like Nikita KhrushchevAwarded Crimea to Kiev, The first Russian capital Historically, Ukraine has regained much of the Black Sea coast.

Putin in his latest speech before Russia moved to eastern Ukraine Communist Bolshevik leaders founded different republics Like Ukraine in Soviet territory.

Some analysts believe that Russia could invade most of the important Black Sea region of Ukraine and essentially block access to hot water in pro-western states.

In this scenario, Russia could target Odessa on the Black Sea coast and Mariupol, the port city of the Sea of ​​Azov, two of the key access points to Ukraine’s hot water. “If Mariupol and Odessa are knocked out, Putin will create a situation that makes it very difficult for Ukraine to export or import products,” says Briza.

He added that it would allow Russians to “strangle the Ukrainian economy.”

Russia has already deployed troops on the Crimean Peninsula, Transnistria, Another pro-Moscow secession area from Moldova adjacent to southwestern Ukraine.

As a result, by simultaneously moving troops from the Transnistria, Crimea, and Donbas regions, Putin can effectively block access to the Black Sea in Kiev, effectively making the state a landlocked country.

Full-scale aggression

Many Western leaders and analysts believe Putin is planning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is a country that Russia’s leaders have long considered unfit for national status. The idea “suggests and intends to move further to Ukraine militarily,” says Briza.

“I think all the evidence is that Putin is actually devoted to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” he said. Boris Johnson saidBritish Prime Minister, today.

“Putin seemed to set the stage for a full-scale aggression on Monday.” Written by David Ignatius, American political analyst.Sonia Mijak, a researcher at the European Research Center at the Australian National University, also has the potential for a full-scale invasion. “Unfortunately very, very expensive.”

Russia had already effectively surrounded Kiev from almost every aspect before the separatist region of eastern Ukraine was recognized as an independent state on Monday. From Belarus, north of Ukraine, to the Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas regions. According to Brizer, all these moves may indicate that Putin is thinking of a full-scale aggression.

If Putin decides to invade in earnest, he can order his troops in all these places in Ukraine in an operation known as: Pinch movement or double siege In military terms.

“Of course, a full-scale aggression could include an attack and an attempt to occupy Kiev and Lviv in the Far West. Therefore, all major Ukrainian cities were attacked and occupied. “It is possible,” Bryza concludes.

Source: TRT World