Middle East

Who will be the Kingmaker in Syria in 2022?

Geopolitical dynamics and relations between Turkey, Russia and the United States determine the future of a confused country

Peace is a relative term in combat zones. Like Syria in 2021. After years of devastating war, the devastated nations found a breathtaking space after the Asad administration’s proposals for military operations in Russia, Iran and Idlib were evaded. And after CENTCOM opened Russia’s airspace, the Turkish and Syrian Interim Government (SIG) counterterrorism operations against the terrorist group YPG were postponed.

In addition, efforts to reconcile with the Assad administration have progressed. Against the backdrop of these events, is there light at the end of the tunnel in the country that was hurt in the 2022 battle?

The Syrian Civil War turned out to be long-lasting, lasting more than a decade, despite several attempts at negotiating reconciliation. However, analyzing the main dynamics of the conflict may provide insights into the possible contours of a civil war in the near future.

The first point is the effort to normalize the Assad administration. The uncertainty of the Biden administration’s Syrian policy and its official position on those seeking to normalize the Assad administration will continue to be a strong driving force.

The US Senate has developed CAATSA law and other forms of sanctions against the Assad administration, but the Biden administration appears to be prepared to exempt states and exempt them from them.Interpol’s decision to allow the Assad administration Re-participation Its network, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Diplomatic outreach and economic transactions His government system and the increase in Jordan Normalization It was a major driver of continued efforts to justify him.

In particular, The difference between this The issue between the US State Department and the National Security Council, led by Brett McGurk, provides a window of opportunity to normalize the Assad regime. However, Severe speech According to the UN representative of Saudi Arabia, who opposes the Assad regime, it was seen as a strong signal that normalization efforts in the Arab world could not be challenged.

If the Assad regime is recalled to the Arab League, the prospects for a political solution in Syria could be even further distant. The activities of the Constitutional Committee may be hindered. The Assad administration and its supporters may be further motivated to seek military solutions. In such cases, Turkey may use diplomacy to prevent the normalization of the Assad regime, to prevent military resolution of the conflict. Pressure on Turkey as the only actor to continue to harness the potential for political solutions will increase further.

The second driving force of the Syrian civil war is the negotiations between Turkey and Russia and the protection of the YPG by Moscow. Russia appears to be using air superiority fighters in Idlib as a leverage against Turkey by targeting internally displaced persons (IDP) camps and creating new masses. Wave of transition Towards Turkey. Russia has increased its aviation activity in response to the sale of its drone to Poland in Ankara. Turkish model How to counter Moscow in Syria, Libya and Karabakh without US assistance.

renewal Escalation calmed down After the summit meeting between Prime Minister Erdogan and Prime Minister Putin. Russia, on the other hand, has not fulfilled its obligations regarding the presence of YPG on the 30km long strip east of the Tallifet and Euphrates rivers in Manbij. On the contrary, Russia continued to protect and support the YPG. Implemented by YPG 192 car bomb attacks Engaged in attacks on Turkish soldiers since June 2018 and therefore became Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Accusation Both the United States and Russia support the YPG.

U.S. can still be a Syrian kingmaker

In 2022, Moscow may continue to use Syria as a leverage over Turkey. The strategic shift of the United States to the Indo-Pacific region could be seen by Moscow as an opportunity to increase pressure on the presence of Turkey, especially Idlib, and Hayat Taharir Arsham. Russia may seek to push Turkey’s political concessions in its role as a guarantor of power over Syria’s opposition. On the contrary, Turkey may expect to put pressure on Russia with the YPG. Therefore, it may be expected that this duality in Syria could lead to transactions. However, the overall aspects of Turkey-Russia relations and possible new developments in the Ukraine-Turkey world could change Syria’s outlook.

The broader changes in Turkish-Russian relations will require the two countries to recalculate the balance of their complex relations. Therefore, Syria is likely not the trendsetter of the relationship, but its fate depends on them.

The third driving force of the Syrian Civil War is the US policy on Syria and CENTCOM’s assistance to Russia. CENTCOM after increased rhetoric and preparation by the Turkish and Syrian interim governments in 2021 Opened airspace For Russia. For the first time since the division of US and Russian air control, Russian fighters entered eastern Syria and conducted military exercises to prevent new Syrian and Turkish military operations against the YPG. This move by the CENTCOM strengthened Russia’s power projection capability in Syria and empowered Moscow in negotiations between Turkey and Russia. In contrast to the past, Turkey needs to calculate Russia’s aerial presence east of the Euphrates River, where the range of Russia’s S-400 air defense system is limited.

Next year, US policy in Syria may determine the outcome of other dynamics. The status quo in Syria is maintained among Turkey, Russia and the United States.The U.S. political elite has little interest in Syria or has no political vision, but CENTCOM Spoofing Their client, YPG, acts for the benefit of the client, not the United States. The possibility of US policy changes may break the stalemate.

Continuation of current policies may contribute to the gradual strengthening of Russia. CENTCOM, which provides incentives to Russia solely to protect the YPG, may strengthen Russia’s position in Syria and promote an agreement between Russia and the United States that foresaw the renormalization of the Assad regime.However, U.S. policy makers have formulated Syrian policies to ensure a political transition in line with UN resolution 2254, abandoned the YPG to cooperate with Turkey and legitimate Syrian opponents, and Roj Peshmerga. Incorporated into the mix U.S. can still be a Syrian kingmaker Without abandoning the Syrian Kurds.

In short, the fate of Syria in 2022 seems to depend on two independent variables. The first is the relationship between Turkey and Russia, and how conflicts in other areas between them affect Syria. The second is US policy on Syria, which determines the future of Assad’s efforts to normalize and the balance of power between Turkey and Russia in Syria.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views, views and editorial policies of TRT World.

All suggestions and submissions to the TRT World Opinion are welcome – email us at opinion.editorial@trtworld.com.

Source: TRT World

https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/war-without-end-who-will-be-king-maker-in-syria-in-2022-53176?utm_source=other&utm_medium=rss Who will be the Kingmaker in Syria in 2022?

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